General Election Forecast - Update

Last month I shared the first draft of my General Election forward looking forecast for the 2015 vote in the UK. I’ve now updated the model (see below) and publish the latest forecast.

Remember, the model works on the following basis:

A statistical model that looks at historical trends for each party of the . . . → Read More: General Election Forecast – Update

What next to predict? I know. Elections!


We can use monte carlo methodology to simulate the last few games of the Premiership and we’ve seen how what we produced was pretty much in line with what the betting markets were predicting (which is normally a good free market that tends to the actual outcome). The challenge then is to try and . . . → Read More: What next to predict? I know. Elections!

Five Powerful Questions

Tony Benn 1925 -2014

Guest Post - Andrew Lilico on the Gay Change Bill

A guest post by Andrew Lilico.

Peter has noted that the Counsellors and Psychotherapists (Regulation) Bill contains two specific prohibitions on “gay to straight conversion therapies”.  First, the Bill mandates that a new code of ethics for registered counsellors, therapists and psychotherapists include a “prohibition on gay to straight conversion therapy”.  Second, whereas other violations . . . → Read More: Guest Post – Andrew Lilico on the Gay Change Bill

The Ex-Gay Therapy Bill

So the Counsellors and Psychotherapists (Regulation) Bill has been published and it’s exactly what I expected.


Provide that the Health Professionals Council be the regulatory body for counsellors and psychotherapists; and for connected purposes.


by the Queen’s most Excellent Majesty, by and with the advice and consent of the . . . → Read More: The Ex-Gay Therapy Bill

Russell Brand on Newsnight

Russell Brand was on Newsnight on Wednesday evening and lots of people have been commenting on what he said. Lots of it has been quite laudatory, so one wonders what it was he shared that was so inspiring.

Have you got that?

Brand wants a revolution He doesn’t believe this can be achieved by . . . → Read More: Russell Brand on Newsnight

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If you believe what you like in the gospels, and reject what you don't like, it is not the gospel you believe, but yourself.
Augustine of Hippo


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