Tag: General Election

Modelling Elector Behaviour

A fascinating interview with Jim Messina who has been hired by the Conservatives in the UK to help them at the next General Election. Amazing stuff. They basically modelled elector behaviour and worked out what things made people more likely

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The Salisbury Convention

Have you heard of the Salisbury Convention / Doctrine? The Salisbury Doctrine, or “Convention” as it is sometimes called, emerged from the working arrangements reached during the Labour Government of 1945-51, when the fifth Marquess of Salisbury was the Leader

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Paul Goodman on Same-Sex Marriage

Paul Goodman is the editor of Conservative Home. Here’s his piece today. No political party should alter a bedrock institution without the following conditions applying – especially if it is the Conservative Party.  A sizeable campaign to change that institution

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Where are UKIP’s votes coming from?

Inspired by a post on Political Betting over Christmas, I thought it would be interesting to look at the rise of UKIP in the polls over 2012 and to see whether the claim that UKIP voters were mainly switching from

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What’s Going to Happen at Synod over Women Bishops?

One of the joys of being a Church of England Priest who works full-time as a statistician (only because no Bishop has been bold enough to give me a job – you know where I am) is that I can

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Oldham East and Saddleworth points in one direction

… and that is coalition by-election candidates. A lot of fuss today in centre right blogs on how to respond to the result overnight from the by-election. Conservative Home has joined the criticism of some in the Tory party of

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