Australian Elections – Review

Australia Flag MapSo, a quick review of my predictions (with 75% of the vote in).

Seats – I predicted 90 Coalition, 57 Labor and 3 Others. The result (projected but pretty certain) is 89 Coalition, 57 Labour and 4 Others. I was one seat out, because I wasn’t expecting Clive Palmer to do quite as well as he did in Fairfax. My analysis that Labor would do slightly better in the constituencies then the vote share would indicate was broadly correct.

As regards votes, we don’t have the final TPP figures yet, but we do have a fair idea of the first preferences. This table below shows the first preference votes, the polling firms’ final predictions, my prediction and for each of those predictions the error. The lower the error, the better the prediction.

  ALP L/NP Gr Oth Error
Result 33.8 45.4 8.4 12.4
Peter Ould 33.2 44.9 9.8 12.2 2.7
Morgan 31.5 45 9.5 14 5.4
ReachTEL 33.7 43.5 10.2 12.7 4.1
Nielsen 33 46 11 10 6.4
Newspoll 33 46 9 12 2.4
Galaxy 35 45 9 11 3.6
Essential 35 43 10 12 5.6

Not too bad at all! The only firm that is beating me so far is Newspoll (and barely) and the others aren’t even in the game really.

On top of all that, I made a nice killing on Betfair by backing the Coalition to get 90 or less seats when everyone was predicting 91 or more.

Pretty good considering 12 hours earlier I was at Gayle’s side whilst she gave birth!

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