Category: Elections

Euro Elections – The Results

So, (almost) all the results are in. If you want to see national tallies then hie thee over to the BBC. As at the time of writing it’s almost complete, just waiting for some of the Scottish islands to count.

Posted in Elections, Statistics

Final Euros Prediction

This is my final European Election prediction. (Updated 17:00 to reflect updated YouGov and Opinium data). Changes are reflected on GB figures from 2009. I am not predicting the result in Northern Ireland. In this prediction I have included probability forecasts

Posted in Elections, Statistics

Updated Euros Prediction – Point in Time

As promised, an updated point in time European Election prediction, attempting to predict what would happen if the European Election was happening today. I will try and update it again on Thursday (when it will become a live prediction of

Posted in Elections, Statistics

Euros Prediction – Point in Time

This is a point in time European Election prediction, attempting to predict what would happen if the European Election was happening today. I will try and update it on Sunday and then again next Thursday (when it will become a

Posted in Elections, Statistics

General Election Forecast – Update

Last month I shared the first draft of my General Election forward looking forecast for the 2015 vote in the UK. I’ve now updated the model (see below) and publish the latest forecast. Remember, the model works on the following

Posted in Elections, Statistics, UK Politics

UK General Election Prediction

I wrote a week or so ago about using some statistical methodology to try and predict the forthcoming General Election in the UK. I’ve now undertaken my first run of the model I developed and the results are below. Remember,

Posted in Elections, Statistics