Final Euros Prediction

This is my final European Election prediction. (Updated 17:00 to reflect updated YouGov and Opinium data).

Changes are reflected on GB figures from 2009. I am not predicting the result in Northern Ireland.

In this prediction I have included probability forecasts on votes for the three main parties, based on a 10,000 run monte-carlo simulation.

Party Vote (%) Vote Change 95% CI Dist Seats Seat Change
UKIP 29.9% +13.3% 24.3% – 35.4% 25 +12
Labour 26.4% +11.4% 24.0% – 28.9% 22 +9
Conservative 22.1% -5.8% 18.8% – 25.5% 15 -10
Liberal Democrats 7.8% -7.0% 1 -10
Greens 7.0% -1.1% 2
SNP / PC 4.3% +1.4% 4 +1
BNP 1.0% -5.3% 0 -2

The following table shows probability outcomes for the top three parties.

First Second Third Probability
UKIP Labour Conservative 84.4%
Labour UKIP Conservative 12.1%
Labour Conservative UKIP 3.5%
Conservative Labour UKIP 0.1%
UKIP Conservative Labour <0.1%

The volatile position from this weekend has firmed up and UKIP are now over 80% likely to top the poll on Thursday. The question is almost not whether they will win the contest for highest vote share but by how much. The Conservative position has slipped back somewhat and despite the Labour position improving it is not enough to seriously challenge UKIP.

I am forecasting an almost complete wipeout of Liberal Democrat MEPs, with the retention of only one (in the South East region) and this is in doubt.

Region Winner Forecast Narrative
East Midlands UKIP Margin over Labour 1-2%
East England UKIP Margin over Conservatives 10%
London Labour c. 15% lead over next party – UKIP and Cons tied for second
NE England Labour 10-15% margin over UKIP
NW England Labour 3-5% margin over UKIP
SE England UKIP 5-7% margin over Conservatives. LD very close to losing last seat.
SW England UKIP 15%+ margin over Conservatives
West Midlands UKIP 10% margin over Labour
Yorkshire Humber Labour / UKIP Too close to call. Result may be within 0.1% margin.
Wales Labour 10%+ margin over UKIP
Scotland SNP 2-5% margin over Labour

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