Updated Euros Prediction – Point in Time

As promised, an updated point in time European Election prediction, attempting to predict what would happen if the European Election was happening today. I will try and update it again on Thursday (when it will become a live prediction of the actual Election).

Changes are reflected on GB figures from 2009. I am not predicting the result in Northern Ireland.

In this prediction I have included probability forecasts on votes for the three main parties, based on a 10,000 run monte-carlo simulation.

Party Vote (%) Vote Change 95% CI Dist Seats Seat Change
Labour 25.1% +10.1% 18.8% – 31.4% 20 +7
UKIP 27.6% +11.0% 20.4% – 34.9% 24 +11
Conservative 23.1% -4.8% 18.8% – 27.3% 17 -8
Greens 8.5% +0.4% 3 +1
Liberal Democrats 8.4% -6.4% 1 -10
SNP / PC 3.5% +0.6% 4 +1
BNP 1.2% -5.1% 0 -2

The following table shows probability outcomes for the top three parties.

Outcome
First Second Third Probability
UKIP Labour Conservative 48.2%
Labour Conservative UKIP 20.4%
UKIP Conservative Labour 16.0%
Labour UKIP Conservative 14.3%
Conservative Labour UKIP 0.8%
Conservative UKIP Labour 0.4%

The context of this forecast is a very volatile polling environment, with UKIP polling between 25% and 34.5% in the past week. I believe examining the data that the ComRes figure of 34.5% as published this weekend represents the outer edge of the confidence interval for the UKIP vote, but if other polling firms see rises in UKIP support then the centre point for the UKIP forecast may rise.

With even the Conservatives having a 1.2% chance of winning the vote, the election is still wide open.

Posted in Elections, Statistics