GS Oxford Clergy Transfer Analysis
Here is the transfer analysis for the election of clergy proctors for General Synod in Oxford Diocese.
The most striking observation on these stage transfers is the failure of Chris Sugden to get elected. Last time (2005) in Oxford Diocese there was a very strong evangelical showing following Bishop Harries’ disastrous handling of the appointment of Dr Jeffrey John as Bishop of Reading. As part of that showing, Chris Sugden of Anglican Mainstream was elected to Synod.
This time round although Chris managed to come seventh on first preferences, he failed to pick up many transferred preferences in the following stages. Crucially, he only picked up one transferred votes from the 25.6 votes of the three excluded E candidates. This allowed Harper, Lee and Dakin to leapfrog him and take the last three places, falling 3.77 votes short of a Synod place.
In comparison to Bath and Wells where E transfers were not effectively used, in the Oxford clergy election E voters succesfully transferred to other E candidates (barring Sugden), allowing Dakin to be elected despite only getting 21 first preferences. L preferences were also strategically transferred to help elect Harper, despite only getting 15 first preferences. In particular, the transfer of 6.2 of Wynburne’s votes at the final exclusion was enough to snatch a Synod place. This is clear evidence of both E and L candidates being promoted in caucus.
C voters on the other hand were poor in transferring to other C candidates. They only won 2 seats in total and this was only because Astin benefited from E and L transfers. Almost 70% of C voters transferred their preference to either E or L candidates.
In your E,L and C analysis, do these approximate to positions on Women in the Episcopate? If so, are we to assume that both Centre and Liberal are pro-women?
Is there a deeper analysis on this basis that might be beneficial, as this kind of analysis might be more useful in seeing how Synod might be voting on Bishops, and then again when matters of Sexuality start to arise.
Es are evangelicals regardless of position on Women and trad Ang Cath. Ls are explicit inclusive church or “regardless of sexual orientation” statements. Cs are in between.
On human sexuality I would expect Es to vote one way, Ls another and Cs to go either way.
oh good (E,C,L)… I thought it eant Evangelical, Catholic and Liberal and that you were labelling Jonathan Baker (Pusey House?!) an Evangelical…