Austria Election Prediction – Final
The main difficulty in predicting the Austrian Election is that there are practically no polls in the final week. This means a projection of trends has to be inferred with no real data to identify whether the trends have continued in the last week.
Well let’s have a go anyway. The model is built assuming d’hondt PR with a 4% cut-off. 10,000 simulations of the election are run based on the latest polls and the aggregated results displayed.
And now some probabilities
Well, you correctly predicted that BZÃ– would fail to enter parliament …
That big blue blob on this map is the most interesting and most scary aspect of the election result:
Actually, I’m going to put up a post shortly showing how I beat every polling firm apart from Gallup, and they only edged ahead of me marginally,
Just saying…. :-)