Austria – Final Prediction

Here is my final prediction for the Austrian Election this Sunday, based on recent polling.

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This is the chart of the weighted moving average of poll results this month. You can see that in the past week the ÖVP has started to move back towards the SPÖ figure. WahlFieber, the online election prediction market, is also recording this pattern and it is likely that at some point before tomorrow’s close of polls that the predicted value there of the two main parties might actually cross.

The other key observation is that the FPÖ have fallen back from their best position a few days ago. There seems to have been a final few days hesitation on voting for Strache, perhaps due to Faymann declaring very clearly that the SPÖ will not form a coalition with the FPÖ.

The charts below show my final predictions based on the polling. Click on any of the graphs to see full screen.

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