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Category: Statistics

General Election Forecast – Update

By Peter Ould Posted on May 7, 2014 Posted in Elections, Statistics, UK Politics

Last month I shared the first draft of my General Election forward looking forecast for the 2015 vote in the UK. I’ve now updated the model (see below) and publish the latest forecast. Remember, the model works on the following …

General Election Forecast – Update Read more »

UK General Election Prediction

By Peter Ould Posted on April 14, 2014 Posted in Elections, Statistics

I wrote a week or so ago about using some statistical methodology to try and predict the forthcoming General Election in the UK. I’ve now undertaken my first run of the model I developed and the results are below. Remember, …

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What next to predict? I know. Elections!

By Peter Ould Posted on April 2, 2014 Posted in Statistics, UK Politics

So… We can use monte carlo methodology to simulate the last few games of the Premiership and we’ve seen how what we produced was pretty much in line with what the betting markets were predicting (which is normally a good …

What next to predict? I know. Elections! Read more »

Who’s Going to Win the Premiership?

By Peter Ould Posted on March 31, 2014 Posted in Statistics, UK News

It’s an interesting question isn’t it? With just 6 weeks to go, there are still seven teams that can mathematically win the English League title. I thought it would be an interesting educational exercise in statistics to demonstrate a monte …

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High school graduation rates among children of same-sex households

By Peter Ould Posted on January 21, 2014 Posted in Gay Parenting, Statistics

This is a really interesting study into the effect of gay parenting on children because the sample is not one of convenience but comes straight off the Canadian Census returns. You can read the full paper here. Let’s look at the …

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Top Ten 2013

By Peter Ould Posted on January 1, 2014 Posted in Statistics, Website

Here are my top ten posts (authored in 2013) from last year in reverse order. 10 – Redefining Marriage – A discussion about how most advocates for changing the definition of marriage have no idea why they’re doing it. 9 …

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